Saturday, December 9, 2017

Post-Turkey Day Turnaround

Better late than never.

Theoretical bank is ($15,620) + $15,330 + $550 = $260.

Last week was pretty good.  Back in black.

Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina +2.5 WIN 17 - 28 (Margin -11)  Winning on the field.

Georgia +1 @ Auburn WIN 28 - 7 (Margin -21)  Strange game this football.

UMass -1.5 @ Florida International LOSS 45 - 63 (Margin +18)  Talk about a barn burner.

TCU +7 @ Oklahoma LOSS 17 - 41 (Margin +24)  No more doubting Baker.

Ohio State -6 @ Wisconsin PUSH 21 - 27 (Margin -6)  Bucks should have put them away.

MIN +3 @ ATL WIN 14 - 9 (Margin -5)  The Bikes are annihilating ATS.

SF @ CHI -3 LOSS 15 - 14 (Margin +1)  I picked SF to win straight up in my other leagues.  I think this was a mistake.

DET @ BAL -2.5 WIN 20 - 44 (Margin -24)  Holla at those Ravens.

KC @ NYJ +3.5 WIN 31 - 38 (Margin -7)  On the field.

PIT @ CIN +5 WIN 23 - 20 (Margin +3)  Nearly on the field.

Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 15/NFL Week 14 Picks!  Dec 5 - Dec 11 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Army +2.5 @ Navy (n)

GB @ CLE +3

DAL @ NYG +4

MIN @ CAR -2.5

PHI @ LAR -2

NE @ MIA +11

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 14/NFL Week 13 Record: 6-3-1 (66.67 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 73-64-5 (53.3%)
NCAAF 2017 Record (14 weeks) 39-33-3 (54.2%) VERSUS SVP 47-45-1 (51.1 %)
NFL 2017 Record (13 weeks):  34-31-2 (50.0 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  42 of 116 (36.2 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -16.5 with spread.  +66.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +33.5 with spread.  +80.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -11.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  +9.5 with spread.  +49.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:  -60 with spread.  -41.0 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:  +47.0 with spread.  +173.0 straight up.
NFL10/NCAA11:  -25.5 with spread.  +6.0 straight up.
NFL11/NCAA12:  -61.0 with spread. -5.0 straight up.
NFL12/NCAA13:  -16.0 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL13/NCAA14:  -37.0 with spread.  -28 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -158.5  (-11.32/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +573.0 (44.08+/week vs +53.42/week spread)

Friday, December 1, 2017

Thanksgiving was not something for which to be thankful

We're in the red.  I feel shame.

Theoretical bank is ($14,520) + $14,070 + $440 = ($10).

Here's what happened last week.  Worst NCAAF week of the season.  Nearly had the Turkey Day Trio, but then the G-Men did something stupid (go figure).  With 3:31 left and 2 time outs, only down by 7, they elected to go for it on 4th down from their own 32.  Then took a sack.  They were nearly guaranteed to get the ball back if they punted - as long as they didn't give up a first down to 3 running plays, but instead they decided to give up 3 points and then get the ball back. Good call.  So all they had to do was punt the god damn ball and not give up a defensive TD on their next possession and that game was a winner. But they must have thought that time ran faster in the fourth quarter when down by 7 (not being used to that situation this year)? Or that time outs wouldn't be granted to them (not ever having one that was really needed this year)?  Something in the bizzaro world or twilight zone would have made more sense.  Have a good career Ben Macadooosh.  Maybe go back to 3rd grade math and try adding 40 + 40. (hint: that's the play clock length in the NFL).  Seriously though, after looking at the point differential, I am a little pissed off we didn't do better this week.

New Mexico +20 @ San Diego State LOSS 10 - 35 (Margin +25)  No idea what happened here just know it was a one score game.

Western Kentucky @ Florida International +2.5 WIN 17 - 41 (Margin -24)  That will help the point diff.  I think we gonna need it.

Connecticut @ Cincinnati -5.5 LOSS 21 - 22 (Margin -1)  Well I'll be a monkey's uncle.

North Texas @ Rice +11 LOSS 30 - 14 (Margin +16)  Close again but no cigar.

Arkansas State @ UL Monroe +8 LOSS 67 - 50 (Margin +17)  Guess I should have taken the over.

MIN -3 @ DET WIN 30 - 23 (Margin -7)  Maybe I should just bet the farm on the Bikes each week.

LAC -2.5 @ DAL WIN 28 - 6 (Margin -22)  Great job Chargers, you rock.

NYG +7.5 @ WAS LOSS 10 - 20 (Margin +10)  I'd like to call this a bad beat, but I'm not sure it qualifies.  Maybe I should DM SVP on the twitter and see if it counts.  I'm sure he'd sympathize.

CAR @ NYJ +4.5 LOSS 35 - 27 (Margin +8)  Just not my week.

SEA @ SF +6.5 LOSS 24 - 13 (Margin +11)  Ditto.

Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 14/NFL Week 13 Picks!  Nov 28 - Dec 4 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina +2.5

Georgia +1 @ Auburn

UMass -1.5 @ Florida International

TCU +7 @ Oklahoma

Ohio State -6 @ Wisconsin

MIN +3 @ ATL

SF @ CHI -3

DET @ BAL -2.5

KC @ NYJ +3.5

PIT @ CIN +5

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 13/NFL Week 12 Record: 3-7-0 (30.0 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 67-61-4 (52.3 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (13 weeks) 37-31-2 (54.4%) VERSUS SVP 45-42-1 (51.7 %)
NFL 2017 Record (12 weeks):  30-30-2 (50.0 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  38 of 110 (34.5 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -16.5 with spread.  +66.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +33.5 with spread.  +80.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -11.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  +9.5 with spread.  +49.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:  -60 with spread.  -41.0 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:  +47.0 with spread.  +173.0 straight up.
NFL10/NCAA11:  -25.5 with spread.  +6.0 straight up.
NFL11/NCAA12:  -61.0 with spread. -5.0 straight up.
NFL12/NCAA13:  -16.0 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -121.5  (-9.35/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +573.0 (44.08+/week vs +53.42/week spread)

Thursday, November 23, 2017

Turkey Day Winners

Gobble these up.

Theoretical bank is ($13,420) + $13,440 + $440 = $460.

Here's what happened last week.  Bears and Browns really bent me over.  One with terrible beat on late defensive TD with the game in hand and one was a missed FG that would have sent it to OT - not that it would have been a winner for sure, but the Bears also gave up a terrible defensive TD on a fumbled snap, which is literally impossible.  Fumbled snaps turn into DOG-PILES, not effing TDs. Baylor Bears were leading too, and literally needed one score in the 4th quarter. Cripes.  Not to mention we went negative in point diff this week.......... without the spread. Still a .500 week, which is LOSING.

So. Alabama @ Georgia So. +5 WIN 0 - 52 (Margin -52)  That's right.  The 0-9 Georgia Southern Eagles won their first game of the season by 52.

Purdue +7.5 @ Iowa WIN 24 - 15 (Margin -9)  But the Hawkeyes beat the tar out of the Buckeyes.  Makes no sense.

Iowa State @ Baylor +9 LOSS 23 - 13 (Margin +10)  C'mon Bears, score a couple points.

Missouri @ Vanderbilt +8.5 LOSS 45 - 17 (Margin +28)  Oh boy, one of those bad ones.

Marshall @ UTSA +1 WIN 7 - 9 (Margin -2)  Road Runners don't lay down for anybody.

DET @ CHI +2.5 LOSS 27 - 24 (Margin +3)  Nice kick Conor Barth.

KC @ NYG +10.5 WIN 9 - 12 (Margin -3)  What an ugly one - aside from being a WINNER!

JAX @ CLE +7.5 LOSS 19 - 7 (Margin +12)  Bad beat of the year in NFL (of my picks).

LAR @ MIN -2 WIN 7 - 24 (Margin -17)  The Bikes are now 7-2-1 ATS this year. How about that?

NE @ OAK +6.5 LOSS 33 - 8 (Margin +25)  Give me a break Los Raiders.

Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 13/NFL Week 12 Picks!  Nov 21 - Nov 27 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

New Mexico +20 @ San Diego State

Western Kentucky @ Florida International +2.5

Connecticut @ Cincinnati -5.5

North Texas @ Rice +11

Arkansas State @ UL Monroe +8

MIN -3 @ DET

LAC -2.5 @ DAL

NYG +7.5 @ WAS

CAR @ NYJ +4.5

SEA @ SF +6.5

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 12/NFL Week 11 Record: 5-5-0 (50.0 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 64-54-4 (54.2 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (12 weeks) 36-27-2 (57.1%) VERSUS SVP 43-36-1 (54.4 %)
NFL 2017 Record (11 weeks):  28-27-2 (50.9 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  37 of 103 (35.9 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -16.5 with spread.  +66.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +33.5 with spread.  +80.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -11.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  +9.5 with spread.  +49.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:  -60 with spread.  -41.0 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:  +47.0 with spread.  +173.0 straight up.
NFL10/NCAA11:  -25.5 with spread.  +6.0 straight up.
NFL11/NCAA12:  -61.0 with spread. -5.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -105.5  (-8.79/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +540.0 (45.0+/week vs +53.79/week spread)

Friday, November 17, 2017

SKI-U-MAH!

Had a wonderful time up in the Twin Cities watching the Gophers roll the Huskers (hence why I was late to the party for picks - driving all afternoon/evening Friday night and up early for an 11 o'clock kick on Sat).  Made those picks sitting at Stub and Herbs outside the stadium.  I had already done a little research and had some idea of who I [see Vegas] liked). End sidebar:  Anyway, I (or anyone in the universe) didn't see that offensive explosion coming.  Guess Croft was setting up the QB keepers during the first 4 B1G games to break them out in this one.

Theoretical bank is ($12,320) + $12,390 + $440 = $510.

Here's what happened last week.  Held it together pretty well. Just a 0.5 point away from a 7-3 week. Alas only 6-4.

Va. Tech @ Ga. Tech +3 WIN 22 - 28 (Margin -6)  Thank goodness for the hook.

Florida Atlantic @ Louisiana Tech +4 LOSS 48 - 23 (Margin +25)  No good.

Georgia @ Auburn +2.5 WIN 17 - 40 (Margin -23)  War Eagle.

Alabama @ Mississippi State +14.5 WIN 31 - 24 (OT) (Margin +7)  Like Gus Johnson says in the BWWs commercial, "This one's headed to OVERTIME."

Notre Dame @ Miami (FL) +3.5 WIN 8 - 41 (Margin -33)  Absolutely trucked 'em.

NO @ BUF +3 LOSS 47 - 10 (Margin +37)  Wrecked point diff for the week.

LAC @ JAX -3.5 LOSS 17 - 20 (OT) (Margin -3)  Score a TD in OT you stupid jungle cats.

DAL +3 @ ATL LOSS 7 - 27 (Margin +20)  Lose Sean Lee on Dallas defense, it becomes less effective than the Huskers new 3-4 scheme.

MIN -1 @ WAS WIN 38 - 30 (Margin -8)  The Bikes are something like 6-2-1 ATS this year - two losses coming in the only two straight up losses.

NYG @ SF +2.5 WIN 21 - 31 (Margin -10)  Look at those Niners NOT going win-less on the season.

Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 12/NFL Week 11 Picks!  Nov 14 - Nov 20 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

So. Alabama @ Georgia So. +5

Purdue +7.5 @ Iowa

Iowa State @ Baylor +9

Missouri @ Vanderbilt +8.5

Marshall @ UTSA +1

DET @ CHI +2.5

KC @ NYG +10.5

JAX @ CLE +7.5

LAR @ MIN -2

NE @ OAK +6.5

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 11/NFL Week 10 Record: 6-4-0 (60.0 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 59-49-4 (54.6 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (11 weeks) 33-25-2 (56.9%) VERSUS SVP 39-32-1 (54.9 %)
NFL 2017 Record (10 weeks):  26-24-2 (52.0 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  33 of 94 (35.1 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -16.5 with spread.  +66.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +33.5 with spread.  +80.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -11.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  +9.5 with spread.  +49.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:  -60 with spread.  -41.0 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:  +47.0 with spread.  +173.0 straight up.
NFL10/NCAA11:  -25.5 with spread.  +6.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -44.5  (-4.05/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +545.0 (+49.55/week vs +53.60/week spread)

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

It's Turning Into a Grind

I might have been a few barley pops deep when I made these picks, but there were so many I liked, that I went with 10.  Started off good, then went cold in the night games.  NFL was horrible.

Theoretical bank is ($11,220) + $11,130 + $440 = $350.

Here's what happened last week.

Clemson @ NC State +7.5 WIN 38 - 31 (Margin +7)  Thank goodness for the hook.

Colorado +4 @ Arizona St. LOSS 30 - 41 (Margin +11)  No good.

New Mexico St. @ Texas St. +10 PUSH 45 - 35 (Margin +10)  Push is a win.

Georgia St. @ Georgia So. +4 PUSH 21 - 17 (Margin +4)  Throw out the records when these two teams get together!  They must have because Georgia So. was 0-7 entering the game only catching 4.

Appalachian St. @ UL Monroe +9.5 WIN 45 - 52 (Margin -7)  On the field.

Coastal Carolina +24 @ Arkansas WIN 38 - 39 (Margin +1)  Should have been on the field.  Crazy talk the 1-8 Chanticleers could compete with big bad SEC team.

Wake Forest +14 @ Notre Dame WIN 37 - 48 (Margin +11)  Good enough.

San Diego St. @ San Jose St. +23.5 LOSS 52 - 7 (Margin +45)  Maybe if the Spartans wouldn't have given up 554 yards on the ground they would have covered the spread.

Oregon St. +7.5 @ California LOSS 23 - 37 (Margin +14)  One back door TD away.

Stanford -1 @ Washington St. LOSS 21 - 24 (Margin +3)  Weak.

LAR @ NYG +3.5 LOSS 51 - 17 (Margin +34)  Talk about a stinker.

TB +7 @ NO LOSS 10 - 30 (Margin +20)  My goodness the wheels have fallen off this week.

DEN +8.5 @ PHI LOSS 23 - 51 (Margin +28)  If you wanna crown them, then crown their ass.

KC @ DAL +1 WIN 17 - 28 (Margin -11)  Rare bright spot.

OAK @ MIA +3 PUSH 27 - 24 (Margin +3)  Thank goodness for a late 2 pointer.

Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 11/NFL Week 10 Picks!  Nov 7 - Nov 13 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

See previous post.


*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.


Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 10/NFL Week 9 Record: 5-7-3 (41.67 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 53-45-4 (54.1 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (10 weeks) 29-24-2 (54.7%) VERSUS SVP 33-30-1 (52.4 %)
NFL 2017 Record (9 weeks):  24-21-2 (53.3 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  29 of 86 (33.7 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -16.5 with spread.  +66.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +33.5 with spread.  +80.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -11.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  +9.5 with spread.  +49.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:  -60 with spread.  -41.0 straight up.
NFL9/NCAA10:  +47.0 with spread.  +173.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -19.0  (-1.9/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +539.0 (+53.9/week vs +55.8/week spread)

Saturday, November 11, 2017

Last Second winners

Ga. Tech
Miss st
Convicts (aka Thug U)
La. Tech
Auburn

Take the points on all. Go!
Ski u mah!

NFL

BUF +3
MIN -1
JAX -3.5
DAL +3
SF +2.5

Monday, November 6, 2017

Reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee-POST (kind of)

This is sort of a re-post to show the results of 2 weeks ago.  NCAA picks stay good, but NFL go bad a bit.  Point diff was extremely good though.

Theoretical bank is ($9,570) + $10,080 + $110 = $620.

Here's what happened last week.

Louisville @ Wake Forest +3 WIN 32 - 42 (Margin -10)  On the field.

Washington St. @ Arizona +2.5 WIN 37 - 58 (Margin -21)  On the field.

Appalachian St. @ Massachusetts +4.5 WIN 27 - 30 (2OT) (Margin -3)  On the field.

Louisiana Tech @ Rice +13 LOSS 42 - 28 (Margin +14)  So close to a 5-0 week.

Michigan St. @ Northwestern +2.5 WIN 31 - 39 (3OT) (Margin -8)  On the field.  Second OT game in a row for the Wildcats (foreshadow to next week...).

MIN -9.5 @ CLE (N) WIN 33 - 16 (Margin -17)  You sound like you're from London, Mate.

OAK @ BUF -2.5 WIN 14 - 34 (Margin -20)  Rare favorite winner.

ATL @ NYJ +4.5 LOSS 25 - 20 (Margin +5)  Doggone-it.

CAR @ TB -2  LOSS 17 - 3 (Margin +14)  Tampa sucks.

PIT @ DET +3 LOSS 20 - 15 (Margin +5)  Stupid Lions.

Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 10/NFL Week 9 Picks!  Oct 31 - Nov 6 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

See previous post.


*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.


Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 9/NFL Week 8 Record: 6-4-0 (60.0 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 48-38-1 (55.8 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (9 weeks) 25-20-0 (55.6%) VERSUS SVP 33-30-1 (52.4 %)
NFL 2017 Record (8 weeks):  23-18-1 (56.1 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  27 of 72 (37.5 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -16.5 with spread.  +66.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +33.5 with spread.  +80.0 straight up.
NFL6/NCAA7:  -11.5 with spread.  +33.0 straight up.
NFL7/NCAA8:  +9.5 with spread.  +49.0 straight up.
NFL8/NCAA9:  -60 with spread.  -41.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -66.0  (-7.33/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +366.0 (+40.67/week vs +48.0/week spread)