Friday, October 13, 2017

Why Do I Do This?

I don't really have an answer.  The trends sure seem to point to the fact that I cannot make money in sports betting.  I can only win a minimal amount with a ton of risk, or more likely break even or lose.  For instance, let's keep a theoretical bank going now.  Assume odds on all games against the spread are the typical -110 (bet amount to win $100).  Say I put $110 on every game.  Of the 56 games selected so far (not including this week since we don't have results yet), that's a $6,160 investment.  I got my investment of $110 back plus $100 on 30 of those games which equals $6,300.  I got only my investment back on one of the games (push) which is $110.  So my bank is -$6160 + $6,300 + $110 = $250.  So at what point can this be a worthwhile source of income?  Say I started betting $1,100 instead of $100.  With the same results my bank goes up to $2,500. I'd also need to be okay with potentially losing $61,600.  Yikes!  Good thing this is just an experiment for entertainment purposes only.

Anyway, just like I said in my last post, I would take credit for the winners that I didn't select as "official."  Those were Buffalo, UTEP, and Kent St.  If I would have taken all of those unofficial picks, we'd be 5-6 on the week so whoopie.  But the point is, I had 5 winners in that list, and I took the wrong ones.  Let's give some unofficial picks again.  Bowling Green, Duke, Oregon St., Boise St., Cincinnati.

Here's what happened last week.

Notre Dame @ North Carolina +16 LOSS 33 - 10 (Margin +23)  Maybe they shouldn't recruit kids that need to take fake classes for college credit to stay eligible.

Marshall @ Charlotte +15 WIN 14 - 3 (Margin +11)  What a barn burner!

UL Monroe @ Texas State +7 LOSS 45 - 27 (Margin +18)  Combined for 39 points in the first QUARTER and State had the lead.  Then State only scored 7 more in the game.  Dumb.

Miami (FL) @ Florida State +3 LOSS 24 - 20 (Margin +4)  The teams trade scores in the last 1:30 with the Canes taking the lead in the last seconds.  Good clock management, Noles.  FFS.

LSU +2.5 @ Florida WIN 17 - 16 (Margin -1)  On the field.

CAR +2.5 @ DET WIN 27 - 24 (Margin -3)  On the field.  Winning!

BUF @ CIN -3 WIN 20 - 16 (Margin -4)  The real question you had to ask yourself on this was, "How are the Bengals favored unless sportsbooks like losing money?"

ARI +6.5 @ PHI LOSS 7 - 34 (Margin +27)  That's not cool.  That line stunk to high heaven.

KC @ HOU +0 (Pick)  LOSS 42 - 34 (Margin +8)  Another stinker - JJ Watt going down didn't help the cause.

MIN -3 @ CHI PUSH 20 - 17 (Margin -3)  That's as ugly of a game as you might ever see.


Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 7/NFL Week 6 Picks!  Oct 10 - Oct 16 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Miami (OH) @ Kent St. +9.5

Toledo @ Central Michigan +7.5

Virginia @ North Carolina +4

NC State @ Pittsburgh +11

Auburn @ LSU +7

GB @ MIN +3

MIA @ ATL -11.5

DET +5  @ NO

CHI +6.5 @ BAL

TB @ ARI +2.5

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.


Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 6/NFL Week 5 Record: 4-5-1 (44.4 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 30-25-1 (54.5 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (6 weeks) 15-15-0 (50.0%) VERSUS SVP 18-23-1 (43.9 %)
NFL 2017 Record (5 weeks):  15-10-1 (60.0 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  16 of 48 (33.3 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff including spread is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread.  Total point margin lower than spread is also good = beating spread on average):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -16.5 with spread.  +66.0 straight up.
NFL5/NCAA6:  +33.5 with spread.  +80.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -4.0  (-0.67/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +325.0 (+54.17/week vs +54.84/week spread)

Friday, October 6, 2017

I Wish I Could Give 'Em All

Oh my goodness, I LOVE the board this week.  So many collegiate games that fit the profile, but I will only pick 5.  I'm going to choose the games I think are the ugliest, therefore, they have the best chance of winning.  NFL slate is not the same.  A couple ugly ones though.  Here's a list of NCAA games I wrote down, but didn't put on the pick list.  Illinois, Buffalo, Northwestern, UTEP, Kansas, Kent State.... So if any of those win, I'm taking credit.  If they all lose, I'll take credit for NOT picking them. Any way it goes, I'm winning.

Here's what happened last week.

South Florida @ East Carolina +21 LOSS 61 - 31 (Margin +30)  Only a 7 point deficit at half.

Ohio @ Massachusetts +5.5 LOSS 58 - 50 (Margin +8)  Talk about points! So close.

Houston @ Temple +13 WIN 20 - 13 (Margin +7)  Don't mess with the Owls.

UConn +17.5 @ SMU LOSS 23 - 49 (Margin +26)  8 point game heading to 4th quarter, where are my backdoor covers?

North Texas +7.5 @ So. Mississippi WIN 43 - 28 (Margin -15)  The Mean Green don't lay down for anyone.

JAX @ NYJ +3.5 WIN 20 - 23 (OT) (Margin -3)  Winning!

BUF +7.5 @ ATL WIN 23 - 17 (Margin -6)  Nice little surprise outright win there.

DET @ MIN -2.5 LOSS 14 - 7 (Margin +7)  Three turnovers in second half equals loss.

PIT @ BAL +3  LOSS 26 - 9 (Margin +17)  The Ravens look good this year......

LAR +6.5 @ DAL WIN 35 - 30 (Margin -5)  Another little outright winner surprise on the leg of Greg Z with what has to be a record seven field goals.


Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 6/NFL Week 5 Picks!  Oct 3 - Oct 9 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Notre Dame @ North Carolina +16

Marshall @ Charlotte +15

UL Monroe @ Texas State +7

LSU +2.5 @ Florida

Miami (FL) @ Florida State +3

CAR +2.5 @ DET

BUF @ CIN -3

ARI +6.5 @ PHI

KC @ HOU +0 (Pick)

MIN -3 @ CHI

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.


Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 5/NFL Week 4 Record: 5-5-0 (50.0 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 26-20-0 (56.5 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (5 weeks) 13-12-0 (52.0%) VERSUS SVP 15-17-1 (46.1 %)
NFL 2017 Record (4 weeks):  13-8-0 (61.9 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  14 of 41 (34.1 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.
NFL4/NCAA5:  -16.5 with spread.  +66.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -37.5  (-7.5/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +245.0 (+49.0/week vs +56.5/week spread)

Friday, September 29, 2017

Skol Bikes

Title of the post is referencing how my phone auto-corrects when talking about the Vikes.  Stupid technology.  Solid last week with good chances to win all the bets except probably the Chargers game.  Rivers was awful or the Chef D was good. Who cares if I win 60%?!  Let's go BIKES!

Here's what happened last week.

West Virginia @ Kansas +23 WIN 56 - 34 (Margin +22)  Oh my this game was all over the place.

Florida @ Kentucky +2.5 WIN 28 - 27 (Margin +1)  Wildcats should have won this game outright.  At least Florida didn't miss the PAT and send it to OT.

Rutgers +12 @ Nebraska WIN 27 - 17 (Margin +10)  Talk about scraping by this week.

San Diego St. @ Air Force +3.5 LOSS 28 - 24 (Margin +4)  Just missed the other way.  Falcons had this one!

Hawai'i +5 @ Wyoming LOSS 21 - 28 (OT) (Margin +7)  Don't throw picks in OT - it's a sure way to lose.

BAL @ JAX (London) +3.5 WIN 7 - 44 (Margin -37)  Who are the Jags? Nobody knows.

CLE -1 @ IND LOSS 28 - 31 (Margin +3)  When is the last time the Browns were favored on the road?  I happen to have that info: Oct 19, 2014. Opponent: The 0-5 Jags. So that doesn't even really count (Browns still lost that game BTW).  Browns have only been favored 9 times away from the dog pound in the last 20 years.  Had to take this one because it was so ridiculous.

OAK @ WAS +3 WIN 10 - 27 (Margin -17)  Stifling defense and electric offense.  That's what we expect from the Skins. Oh wait, it's not? Well they still did it.

KC @ LAC +3  LOSS 24 - 10 (Margin +14)  Why do oddsmakers continue to give the Chargers credit?  Because they lost on last second FG misses the first two weeks, didn't look good in this one though - offensively.  Defense held them in the whole game despite 3 INTs from Rivers.

TB @ MIN +3 WIN 17 - 34 (Margin -17)  I'm feelin' Thielen.  Can you Diggs it?!


Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 5/NFL Week 4 Picks!  Sep 26 - Oct 2 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

South Florida @ East Carolina +21

Ohio @ Massachusetts +5.5

Houston @ Temple +13

UConn +17.5 @ SMU

North Texas +7.5 @ So. Mississippi

JAX @ NYJ +3.5

BUF +7.5 @ ATL

DET @ MIN -2.5

PIT @ BAL +3

LAR +6.5 @ DAL

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.


Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 4/NFL Week 3 Record: 6-4-0 (60.0 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 21-15-0 (58.3 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (4 weeks) 11-9-0 (55.0%) VERSUS SVP 12-14-1 (46.1%)
NFL 2017 Record (3 weeks):  10-6-0 (62.5 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  10 of 32 (31.3 %)

Point Differential by week (negative point diff is good = beating the spreads by more points then losing to spread):

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.
NFL3/NCAA4:  -67.5 with spread.  -10.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -21.0  (-5.25/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +179.0 (+44.75/week vs +50.0/week spread)

Saturday, September 23, 2017

You're Gonna Hate All These Picks

Three outright winners in NCAAF and one in NFL.  Not like the spreads were huge or anything, but it still feels good to be a gangsta'.  I need to pay more attention to line movement as we get closer to game time.  I would have probably made a couple different choices.  That's the problem with getting these picks done on Thurdsay each week. Especially with NFL games. But when else to do it?!  Ain't nobody got time for that on Friday night or Saturday morning.  BTW all my NFL games are based on the West Gate Super Contest lines which lock on Wednesday night (around 5 local Vegas time) each week. Also, on those, I went with the dumbest lines of the week and took the opposite of "smart" according to public opinion (I think).  Predicting 5-0.

Here's what happened last week.

Kentucky +7 @ South Carolina WIN 23 - 13 (Margin -10)  Outright winners.

Va. Tech @ East Carolina +23 LOSS 64 - 17 (Margin +47)  Had to get my calculator out for that one.

Purdue @ Mizzou -7.5 LOSS 35 - 3 (Margin +32)  It ain't worth losing if you can't lose big.  Pretty sure everybody in America had Purdue in this game.  Great line Vegas. Maybe do some more research next time instead of "Oh SEC vs B1G, easy - favor SEC team by a TD plus the hook."

UCLA @ Memphis +3 WIN 45 - 48 (Margin -3)  Outright winners.

Kansas St. @ Vanderbilt +3.5 WIN 7 - 14 (Margin -7)  Outright winners.

TEN @ JAX +2.5 LOSS 37 - 16 (Margin +21)  Just a brutal follow up game after beating Houston.

NE @ NO +6.5 LOSS 36 - 20 (Margin +16)  Everybody in the world KNEW the Pats would come in with vengeance after losing week 1.  So why was the spread less than a TD?  Vegas and/or Sharps lost on this one.

MIA +4 @ LAC WIN 19 - 17 (Margin -2)  After an odd week 1 bye for Miami, the Chargers still find a way to blow the last FG in consecutive weeks (Who cares? Was a winner no matter what at that point!).

MIN @ PIT -9  WIN 9 - 26 (Margin -17)  No Bradford announced on Sunday.  Had to change pick and also laid the extra points for fair play.  Line jumped plenty, but not enough to have faith in Case Keenum.

NYJ +14 @ OAK LOSS 20 - 45 (Margin +25)  Fish had no problem dealing with a hurricane and traveling cross country to get a win, what gives Jets?

SF +14 @ SEA WIN 9 - 12 (Margin +3)  What a barn burner.


Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 4/NFL Week 3 Picks!  Sep 19 - Sep 25 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

West Virginia @ Kansas +23

Florida @ Kentucky +2.5

Rutgers +12 @ Nebraska

San Diego St. @ Air Force +3.5

Hawai'i +5 @ Wyoming

BAL @ JAX +3.5

CLE -1 @ IND

OAK @ WAS +3

KC @ LAC +3

TB @ MIN +3

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.


Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 3/NFL Week 2 Record: 6-5-0 (54.5 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 15-11-0 (57.7 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (3 weeks) 8-7-0 (53.3%) VERSUS SVP 7-11-1 (38.9%)
NFL 2017 Record (2 weeks):  7-4-0 (63.6 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  7 of 23 (30.4 %)

Point Differential by week:

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.
NFL2/NCAA3:  +44.0 with spread.  +105.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +46.5  (+15.5/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +189.0 (+63.0/week vs +47.5/week spread)

Thursday, September 14, 2017

Row The Boat

Not a bad week as there was a chance to go 4-1.  Two losses were one score from being winners and none were bad beats from what I can tell.  SVP also went 2-3 (I gave him the same ISU line that I had since it was the same game.... and the right side clearly.  I had Tulane on my radar, but didn't pull the trigger.  Should have posted my NFL picks on here, (unofficial Vegas Super Contest picks were 4-1).  Contest rules are here.  I suppose I might as well start posting them each week because I do pick them anyway.  The only dumb rules in my "local contest" is that I'm forced to pick the Vikings game no matter what because we are homers.  Doesn't matter that much, they will likely all be dogs and you will still hate them like my NCAAF picks.  Trust the process.

Here's what happened last week.

W. Michigan +7.5 @ Michigan State LOSS 14 - 28 (Margin +14)  Broncos D and ST did their part in scoring, but not their offense.  One TD form a winner.

E. Michigan +5.5 @ Rutgers WIN 16 - 13 (Margin -3)  Outright winner.  Ouch for Rutgers!

Iowa @ Iowa State +3.5 WIN 44 - 41 (OT) (Margin +3)  Had a nice lead in the 4th quarter, but blew it in regulation and then again in OT.

Indiana @ Virginia +3 LOSS 34 - 17 (Margin +17)  Dumb.

Auburn +4.5 @ Clemson LOSS 6 - 14 (Margin +8)  Cripes.

ATL @ CHI +6.5 WIN 23 - 17 (Margin +6)  Bears nearly had a chance at a PAT for the outright win.

BAL +2.5 @ CIN WIN 20 - 0 (Margin -20)  Baltimore defense came to play.

JAX +5 @ HOU WIN 29 - 7 (Margin -22)  Jacksonville defense also came to play.

IND +4 @ LAR LOSS 9 - 46 (Margin +37)  Go to sleep Scott Tolzien.

NO @ MIN -3 WIN 19 - 29 (Margin -10)  Garbage time TD made it closer than it was.


Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 3/NFL Week 2 Picks!  Sep 12 - Sep 18 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Kentucky +7 @ South Carolina

Va. Tech @ East Carolina +23

Purdue @ Mizzou -7.5

UCLA @ Memphis +3

Kansas St. @ Vanderbilt +3.5

TEN @ JAX +2.5

NE @ NO +6.5

MIN +5.5 @ PIT (Bradford out now) I don't want this pick now. I'd take MIA +4 @ LAC

NYJ +14 @ OAK

SF +14 @ SEA

*lines for NCAAF are best available and current as of post time/date.
**lines for NFL are taken from Las Vegas Super Contest hosted by Westgate Casino which lock weekly on Wednesday around 5 PM Las Vegas time.  Link to the Super Contest Rules.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 2/NFL Week 1 Record: 6-4-0 (60.0 %)
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 9-6-0 (60.0 %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (2 weeks) 5-5-0 VERSUS SVP 2-7-1
NFL 2017 Record (1 weeks):  4-1-0 (80.0 %)
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  3 of 14 (21.4 %)

Point Differential by week:

NFL0/NCAA1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.
NFL1/NCAA2:  -9.0 with spread.  +30.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +2.5  (+1.25/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +84.0 (+42.0/week vs +40.75/week spread)

Friday, September 8, 2017

The Patriots Must Suck

Off to a great start in 2017 (unlike the Pats, didn't watch a single play, but that one is a head-scratcher. Glad I wasn't picking that game)!  I've always said...... I don't wanna win 'em all, just 60%.  I would also like to take this moment to announce that I will put my picks up against SVP (for entertainment purposes only, of course), since we are using essentially the same system.  Winner gets a high five.  ESPN finally learned how to use YouTube this season to post his picks - where it will get a million % more exposure than posting the video on their lame website where it's impossible to find and usually not updated.  Here's a link to his picks.  Unfortunately (for him!), he went 0-4-1.  We did share two losing picks.

Here's what happened last week.

Ball St. +7 @ Illinois WIN 21 - 24 (Margin +3)  Cards probably should have won outright.  Maybe next time fellas.

App. St. +14.5 @ Georgia LOSS 10 - 31 (Margin +21)  Just one score away from a winner.  Start scoring earlier than the 4th quarter next time.

Arkansas St. +14.5 @ Nebraska WIN 36 - 43 (Margin +7)  Nearly had an outright winner again as UNL was gouged in the air for 400+ yards.

Vanderbilt @ Mid. Tenn. St. +3.5 LOSS 28 - 6 (Margin +22)  Statement game for Vandy!?

Tennessee @ Ga. Tech +3 WIN 42 - 41 (2OT) (Margin +1)  Yellow Jackets blew two 14 point leads in this one and then went for 2 and the win in double OT.  Better than losing by 7 in 3OT!


Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 2/NFL Week 1 Picks!  Sep 5 - Sep 11 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music and directional school mania??)

W. Michigan +7.5 @ Michigan State

E. Michigan +5.5 @ Rutgers

Iowa @ Iowa State +3.5

Indiana @ Virginia +3

Auburn +4.5 @ Clemson



Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 1/NFL Week 0 Record: 3-2-0
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 3-2-0 (60 %) VERSUS SVP 0-4-1
NCAAF 2017 Record (1 weeks) 3-2-0
NFL 2017 Record (0 weeks):  0-0-0
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  0 of 5 (0 %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +11.5 with spread.  +54.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +11.5  (+11.5/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +54.0 (+54.0/week vs +42.5/week spread)

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

College Football is BACK!

Let's start off the 2017 season with a bang biscuit!  A clean slate! A fresh start!  This blog has mostly become about sports betting and the possibility of beating the system by simply monitoring line movement and wager percentages (not total money wagered on either side - but just number of bets on either side).  Obviously odds makers are in this business to MAKE money as opposed to lose it, so they adjust point spreads to minimize their risk (i.e., keep money equal on both sides) so they will only collect the "juice."  On the other side of that, odds makers don't set point spreads based on their prediction of the outcome, not to say the spread doesn't sometimes end up like that because it does, but rather they set point spreads to encourage equal betting on both sides (see risk management statement).  This setting of the point spread falls in line typically with the general public perception of the teams playing.

Example: Team A has a lot of public hype as being "good" and team B has little to no public hype, is unknown, or is thought to be "bad" based on any number of reasons that the public perception uses to form opinions (potentially non-factual evidence).  In reality, Team B is a very tough match up for Team A based on many statistics that are unknown to public opinion.  Team A plays Team B.  Odds makers favor Team A by more points than statistics show they should, based on public opinion.  More people bet on Team A (volume of bets) and maybe even more money is bet on Team A.  Team B easily covers the spread because the line was too high based on statistics and the odds makers clean up with little risk.  Sometimes Team A is favored by more than statistics show they should and it is LESS than what the public opinion deems to be a correct point spread.  This is is known as the stinky line that seems too good to be true, which usually means it is.  Don't fall for those traps.  Take the other side and clean up with the sharks!

Here is a longer version of the system explained in a 2015 post when I started tracking my picks.  Here's a post that recaps the last 2 years.

Here are your 2017 NCAA Week 1/NFL Week 0 Picks!  Aug 31 - Sep 4 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Ball St. +7 @ Illinois

App. St. +14.5 @ Georgia

Arkansas St. +14.5 @ Nebraska

Vanderbilt @ Mid. Tenn. St. +3.5

Tennessee @ Ga. Tech +3



Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 1/NFL Week 0 Record: 0-0-0
Overall 2017 Football Season Record: 0-0-0 (NA %)
NCAAF 2017 Record (0 weeks) 0-0-0
NFL 2017 Record (0 weeks):  0-0-0
Overall 2017 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  0 of 0 (NA %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +0.0 with spread.  +0.0 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +0.0  (+0.0/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +0.0 (+0.0/week vs +0.0/week spread)