Tuesday, December 27, 2016

2016 Season Final Update

Well I ended in the black on NFL by one game.  If all of those games were wagered with the same odds and same values, that would still be a net loss.  Using the standard wager $110 to win $100, that would be a net loss of $50.  Flip one game (change record to 17-14-1) to make a lucrative profit of $160 on a $3,520 investment.  2016 picks were better by a whopping 2% from 2015.  Hurray.  No week 17 picks.

Last year (2015) looked like this:

Overall 2015 Football Season Record: 47-52-4 (47.4%)

NCAAF 2015 Record (11 weeks) 32-39-3

NFL 2015 Record (12 weeks):  15-13-1

Here's what last week looked like:

  • WAS @ CHI +3 LOSS 41 - 21 (Margin +20)  Nice work bears.

  • TB @ NO -3  WIN 24 - 31 (Margin -7)  Go saints.

  • ATL @ CAR +3 LOSS 33 - 16 (Margin +17)  Ouch.

  • SD @ CLE +5 WIN 17 - 20 (Margin -3)  Never count out the dog pound.

  • MIN @ GB -6.5 WIN 25 - 38 (Margin -13)  Fudge the pack.

Here is a breakdown of the 2016 season.

NFL Week 16 Record: 3-2-0

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 41-42-3 (49.4 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (14 weeks) 25-27-2 (48.1 %)

NFL 2016 Record (15 weeks):  16-15-1 (51.6 %)

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  25 of 72 (34.7 %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.
NCAA Week 2:  -51.5 with spread.  +24 straight up.
NCAA Week 3:  +95 with spread.  +116 straight up.
NCAA Week 4:  -59 with spread.  -30 straight up.
NCAA Week 5:  +13.5 with spread.  +31 straight up.
NCAA Week 6:  -74 with spread.  -35 straight up.
NCAA Week 7:  -26 with spread.  +20 straight up.
NCAA Week 8:  +21.5 with spread.  +37 straight up.
NCAA Week 9:  +12 with spread.  +46 straight up.
NCAA Week 10:  -18.5 with spread.  +28 straight up.
NCAA Week 11:  +6.5 with spread.  +29 straight up.
NCAA Week 12:  +72 with spread.  +83 straight up.
NCAA Week 13:  +22.5 with spread.  +60 straight up.
NCAA Week 14:  +42 with spread.  +38 straight up.
NFL Week 14:      -3 with spread.  +15 straight up.
NFL Week 15:      +44 with spread.  +45 straight up.
NFL Week 16:      +12.5 with spread.  +14 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +123  (+7.23/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +571 (+33.6/week vs +26.4/week spread)

Saturday, December 24, 2016

Packers Suck

WAS @ CHI +3 LOSS
TB @ NO -3  WIN
ATL @ CAR +3 LOSS
SD @ CLE +5 WIN
MIN @ GB -6.5 WIN

Here's what last week looked like:

  • PHI +5 @ BAL WIN 26 - 27 (Margin +1)  Go eagles.

  • GB @ CHI +4.5 WIN 30 - 27 (Margin +3)  Go bears.

  • IND @ MIN -5 LOSS 34 - 6 (Margin +29)  WTF.  One game ruins my weekly differential.

  • JAX +3.5 @ HOU WIN 20 - 21 (Margin +1)  Go jags.

  • CAR @ WAS -7 LOSS 26 - 15 (Margin +11)  Two games ruin the weekly diff I guess.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NFL Week 15 Record: 3-2-0

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 38-40-3 (48.7 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (14 weeks) 25-27-2

NFL 2016 Record (15 weeks):  13-13-1

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  24 of 69 (34.8 %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.
NCAA Week 2:  -51.5 with spread.  +24 straight up.
NCAA Week 3:  +95 with spread.  +116 straight up.
NCAA Week 4:  -59 with spread.  -30 straight up.
NCAA Week 5:  +13.5 with spread.  +31 straight up.
NCAA Week 6:  -74 with spread.  -35 straight up.
NCAA Week 7:  -26 with spread.  +20 straight up.
NCAA Week 8:  +21.5 with spread.  +37 straight up.
NCAA Week 9:  +12 with spread.  +46 straight up.
NCAA Week 10:  -18.5 with spread.  +28 straight up.
NCAA Week 11:  +6.5 with spread.  +29 straight up.
NCAA Week 12:  +72 with spread.  +83 straight up.
NCAA Week 13:  +22.5 with spread.  +60 straight up.
NCAA Week 14:  +42 with spread.  +38 straight up.
NFL Week 14:      -3 with spread.  +15 straight up.
NFL Week 15:      +44 with spread.  +45 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +110.5  (+6.91/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +557 (+34.8/week vs +27.9/week spread)

Sunday, December 18, 2016

Forgot to post!

Quick picks...... all updates from last week will come.

PHI +5 @ BAL WIN
GB @ CHI +4.5 WIN
IND @ MIN -5 LOSS
JAX +3.5 @ HOU WIN
CAR @ WAS -7 LOSS

Here's what last week looked like:

  • PIT @ BUF +2 LOSS 27 - 20 (Margin +7) Crap.

  • CHI @ DET +9  WIN 17 - 20 (Margin -3) Highlight of the week.

  • WAS @ PHI +1 LOSS 27 - 22 (Margin +5)  Crap.

  • MIN @ JAX +3 LOSS 25 - 16 (Margin +9)  Vikings in a tail spin still beat the Jags.

  • DAL @ NYG +3 WIN 7 - 10 (Margin -3)  Cool.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NFL Week 14 Record: 2-3-0

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 35-38-3 (47.9 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (14 weeks) 25-27-2

NFL 2016 Record (14 weeks):  10-11-1

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  24 of 66 (36.4 %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.
NCAA Week 2:  -51.5 with spread.  +24 straight up.
NCAA Week 3:  +95 with spread.  +116 straight up.
NCAA Week 4:  -59 with spread.  -30 straight up.
NCAA Week 5:  +13.5 with spread.  +31 straight up.
NCAA Week 6:  -74 with spread.  -35 straight up.
NCAA Week 7:  -26 with spread.  +20 straight up.
NCAA Week 8:  +21.5 with spread.  +37 straight up.
NCAA Week 9:  +12 with spread.  +46 straight up.
NCAA Week 10:  -18.5 with spread.  +28 straight up.
NCAA Week 11:  +6.5 with spread.  +29 straight up.
NCAA Week 12:  +72 with spread.  +83 straight up.
NCAA Week 13:  +22.5 with spread.  +60 straight up.
NCAA Week 14:  +42 with spread.  +38 straight up.
NFL Week 14:      -3 with spread.  +15 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +66.5  (+4.43/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +512 (+34.1/week vs +29.67/week spread)

Thursday, December 8, 2016

These Bets Stink

Not much to say about last week, I could flip a coin and do better probably.  I have no vision, no clarity.  I'm grasping at straws.  Got some real dog baby games this week.  I'm sure it will work out well.  Five home dogs.

Here are your 2016 NCAA Week 15/NFL Week 14 Picks!  Dec 6 - Dec 12 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

PIT @ BUF +2  LOSS

CHI @ DET +9  WIN

WAS @ PHI +1  LOSS

MIN @ JAX +3  LOSS

DAL @ NYG +3  WIN

Here's what last week looked like:

  • DEN @ JAX +3.5 LOSS 20 - 10 (Margin +10)  Denver defense continues to dominate.  The Jags had 3 or 4 possessions in the 4th quarter to make this a winner and still failed.

  • DET @ NO -6 LOSS 28 - 13 (Margin +15)  Drew Brees threw the ball to the other team too many times to overcome.

  • BUF +3 @ OAK LOSS 24 - 38 (Margin +14)  Up 15 points in the middle of the third quarter, the Bills forgot to play defense for the remainder of the game and gave up 29 unanswered points.  If you can figure out how that is possible, please explain it to me.

  • TB @ SD -3.5 LOSS 28 - 21 (Margin +7)  Leading by 4 in the 4th quarter, the Chargers failed to score another point and lost.  Great plan.

  • WAS @ ARI -1 WIN 23 - 31 (Margin -8)  Leading by 1 late in the game, the Cardinals iced it with a long TD pass to avoid an 0-5 week.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 14/NFL Week 13 Record: 1-4-0

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 33-35-3 (48.5 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (14 weeks) 25-27-2

NFL 2016 Record (13 weeks):  8-8-1

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  22 of 61 (36.1 %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.
NCAA Week 2:  -51.5 with spread.  +24 straight up.
NCAA Week 3:  +95 with spread.  +116 straight up.
NCAA Week 4:  -59 with spread.  -30 straight up.
NCAA Week 5:  +13.5 with spread.  +31 straight up.
NCAA Week 6:  -74 with spread.  -35 straight up.
NCAA Week 7:  -26 with spread.  +20 straight up.
NCAA Week 8:  +21.5 with spread.  +37 straight up.
NCAA Week 9:  +12 with spread.  +46 straight up.
NCAA Week 10:  -18.5 with spread.  +28 straight up.
NCAA Week 11:  +6.5 with spread.  +29 straight up.
NCAA Week 12:  +72 with spread.  +83 straight up.
NCAA Week 13:  +22.5 with spread.  +60 straight up.
NCAA Week 14:  +42 with spread.  +38 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +69.5  (+4.96/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +497 (+35.5/week vs +30.54/week spread)

Friday, December 2, 2016

Time For Some NFL

Remember last week when I said, "Well it all comes down to this.  Can we finish in the black?"  I'm not sure what I was thinking.  There are plenty of weeks of football left and although I won't likely pick winners from college bowl games, I will give out NFL picks.  Also, someone once told me after losing a bet on a conference championship game, "That's why you don't bet on conference championship games."  Even though that was about basketball, I might stay away from the football games too.

Here are your 2016 NCAA Week 14/NFL Week 13 Picks!  Nov 29 - Dec 5 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

DEN @ JAX +3.5  LOSS

DET @ NO -6  LOSS

BUF +3 @ OAK  LOSS

TB @ SD -3.5  LOSS

WAS @ ARI -1  WIN

Here's what last week looked like:

  • Ball St. +7.5 @ Miami (Oh.) WIN 20 - 21 (Margin +1)  In tribute to the "Boom goes the dynamite" kid, the Cardinals nearly pull off a win.

  • Arkansas @ Missouri +7.5 WIN 24 - 28 (Margin -4)  Missouri is terrible and they win outright coming from behind, down 17 at half.

  • West Virginia @ Iowa St. +8 LOSS 49 - 19 (Margin +30)  After keeping it close in the first half, the Cyclones turned it over a few times in the second half and somehow gave up 341 passing yards on 13 completions.  For you non-math majors out there, that's about 26 yards per completion.

  • Navy @ SMU +7 LOSS 75 - 31 (Margin +44)  Navy scored 75 points.  Again, this game was close at half and then Navy exploded.  Two huge momentum plays to start the second half and SMU threw in the towel, I guess?  A 50 yard rush TD and a pick-6 in the first 1:49 of the half.

  • Tennessee @ Vanderbilt +7.5 WIN 34 - 45 (Margin -11)  Who knew that Vandy could score that many?

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 13/NFL Week 12 Record: 3-2-0

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 32-31-3 (50.8 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (13 weeks) 25-27-2

NFL 2016 Record (12 weeks):  7-4-1

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  22 of 59 (37.3 %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.
NCAA Week 2:  -51.5 with spread.  +24 straight up.
NCAA Week 3:  +95 with spread.  +116 straight up.
NCAA Week 4:  -59 with spread.  -30 straight up.
NCAA Week 5:  +13.5 with spread.  +31 straight up.
NCAA Week 6:  -74 with spread.  -35 straight up.
NCAA Week 7:  -26 with spread.  +20 straight up.
NCAA Week 8:  +21.5 with spread.  +37 straight up.
NCAA Week 9:  +12 with spread.  +46 straight up.
NCAA Week 10:  -18.5 with spread.  +28 straight up.
NCAA Week 11:  +6.5 with spread.  +29 straight up.
NCAA Week 12:  +72 with spread.  +83 straight up.
NCAA Week 13:  +22.5 with spread.  +60 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +27.5  (+2.11/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +459 (+35.3/week vs +33.2/week spread)

Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Put Me Out of My Misery, or Show Me the Money

Well it all comes down to this.  Can we finish in the black?  Probably only if we go 5-0.  I'll take 4-1.  It all depends on rivalry week (for some?)  Not sure if the first game is between rivals or not, but it would appear that maybe the other two SEC games are maybe rivals.  At least Tennessee and Vandy are in-state rivals, but is it really a "rivalry" that anyone outside the state cares about? Nope.  Arkansas and Missouri share a border, but the Tigers are pretty new to the SEC, who did Arkansas play their last game against before Missouri? Is it even the same every year? Do I really care? Nope.  Can't imagine Navy and SMU really feeling like rivals.  Just about as much as WVU and Iowa St.  So much for rivalry week.  Take the Wolverines to keep it close if you want.  I'd also take Alabama no matter what the line.  They are proven world beaters and should roll tide over anyone they face in the next 4 games (this week, SEC Champ, Playoff game 1, NCAA Champ game).

Here are your 2016 NCAA Week 13/NFL Week 12 Picks!  Nov 22 - Nov 28 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Ball St. +7.5 @ Miami (Oh.)  WIN

Arkansas @ Missouri +7.5  WIN

West Virginia @ Iowa St. +8  LOSS

Navy @ SMU +7  LOSS

Tennessee @ Vanderbilt +7.5  WIN

Here's what last week looked like:

  • Iowa @ Illinois +9.5 LOSS 28 - 0 (Margin +28)  The trip to the Champaign room was not everything we'd hoped it would be.  Game was close for a while.  Jeff George Jr. would have at least scored some points. Damn you Wes Lunt.

  • Oklahoma St. @ TCU -5 LOSS 31 - 6 (Margin +25)  Again, how could TCU be favored and the line moving up despite NO ONE betting on them?  Vegas has a serious problem of being stupid right now.  Either my trend data is garbage or the oddsmakers are on holiday break a little early.

  • Miami (FL) @ NC State +3 LOSS 27 - 13 (Margin +14)  No comment.

  • Washington St. @ Colorado -6 WIN 24 - 38 (Margin -14)  The only bright spot of the week.

  • Stanford @ Cal +11 LOSS 45 - 31 (Margin +14) Ed's son was unstoppable.  Finally put that "can't score road TDs" nonsense to bed.

  • Arkansas @ Mississippi St. -1.5 LOSS 58 - 42 (Margin +16)  This line was so terrible it had to be right.  Either that or Vegas likes losing money.  You figure it out, because I can't.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 12/NFL Week 11 Record: 1-5-0

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 29-29-3 (50.0 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (12 weeks) 22-25-2

NFL 2016 Record (11 weeks):  7-4-1

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  20 of 54 (37.0 %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.
NCAA Week 2:  -51.5 with spread.  +24 straight up.
NCAA Week 3:  +95 with spread.  +116 straight up.
NCAA Week 4:  -59 with spread.  -30 straight up.
NCAA Week 5:  +13.5 with spread.  +31 straight up.
NCAA Week 6:  -74 with spread.  -35 straight up.
NCAA Week 7:  -26 with spread.  +20 straight up.
NCAA Week 8:  +21.5 with spread.  +37 straight up.
NCAA Week 9:  +12 with spread.  +46 straight up.
NCAA Week 10:  -18.5 with spread.  +28 straight up.
NCAA Week 11:  +6.5 with spread.  +29 straight up.
NCAA Week 12:  +72 with spread.  +83 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  +5  (+0.42/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +399 (+33.3/week vs +32.8/week spread)

Friday, November 18, 2016

I'm Reading, "DON'T KILL YOURSELF" Books!

Does anyone else feel like their winning percentage is just disappearing?  I feel so much like giving up.  But like the men of Troy did last week, I will Fight On.  Got two favorites for you this week plus a bonus pick favorite to try and catch up.  Usually avoid them at all costs, but these look too good again.  Just like the Buckeyes vs Nebraska (but not as good).  Also, after being one of the 3 B1G whipping boy teams, the Illini are catching ONLY 9.5 against the Hawks who proved to be world beaters last week.  That line stinks worse than Louisville's chances to get to the college football playoff after getting trounced by Houston.  Expect a let down from that pesky Iowa squad this week as they avoid getting shocked in Champaign by the slimmest of margins (or blow out Illinois by 77). Let's be honest, anything is possible at this point.  Otherwise the other picks are because everyone is on Ok St., Miami, Wazoo, Stanford, and Arkansas, but the line moved the other way.  That is all.

Here are your 2016 NCAA Week 12/NFL Week 11 Picks!  Nov 15 - Nov 21 WINNERS! (cue Trombone Shorty music)

Iowa @ Illinois +9.5  LOSS

Oklahoma St. @ TCU -5  LOSS

Miami (FL) @ NC State +3  LOSS

Washington St. @ Colorado -6  WIN

Stanford @ Cal +11  LOSS

Bonus pick: Arkansas @ Mississippi St. -1.5  LOSS

Here's what last week looked like:

  • North Carolina @ Duke +11.5 WIN 27 - 28 (Margin -1)  Outright win starts off the week right.  Hold on tight, we're going to need it.

  • Utah @ Arizona St. +6 LOSS 49 - 26 (Margin +23)  This game got out of hand early.

  • Penn St. @ Indiana +7.5 LOSS 45 - 31 (Margin +14)  Ridiculously bad beat.  IU goes from WINNING OUTRIGHT by 3 with 6:51 to play to losing the game by 14.  Capped off by a sack fumble return for a meaning less TD when they could have fell on it and took one knee to win.

  • Tulsa +1 @ Navy LOSS 40 - 42 (Margin +2)  Lost by a point. Cool.

  • Vanderbilt @ Missouri -3.5 WIN 17 - 26 (Margin -9)  Missouri is bad, but were favored and the line was moving up.  Strange pick, but it had to be the right side.

Here is a breakdown of the season as of right meow.

NCAA Week 11/NFL Week 10 Record: 2-3-0

Overall 2016 Football Season Record: 28-24-3 (53.8 %)

NCAAF 2016 Record (11 weeks) 21-20-2

NFL 2016 Record (10 weeks):  7-4-1

Overall 2016 football picks that were underdog outright wins:  20 of 54 (37.0 %)

Point Differential by week:

NCAA Week 1:  +13.5 with spread.  +50 straight up.
NCAA Week 2:  -51.5 with spread.  +24 straight up.
NCAA Week 3:  +95 with spread.  +116 straight up.
NCAA Week 4:  -59 with spread.  -30 straight up.
NCAA Week 5:  +13.5 with spread.  +31 straight up.
NCAA Week 6:  -74 with spread.  -35 straight up.
NCAA Week 7:  -26 with spread.  +20 straight up.
NCAA Week 8:  +21.5 with spread.  +37 straight up.
NCAA Week 9:  +12 with spread.  +46 straight up.
NCAA Week 10:  -18.5 with spread.  +28 straight up.
NCAA Week 11:  +6.5 with spread.  +29 straight up.

Total point margin including spread:  -67  (-6.1/week)
Total point margin straight up:  +316 (+28.7/week vs +34.8/week spread)